PLOS Science Wednesday: Hi Reddit, my name is Wan Yang, and I developed a forecast system that predicted the timing and magnitude of flu epidemics in Hong Kong -- Ask Me Anything!

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Hi Reddit,

My name is Wan Yang, and I am an Associate Research Scientist at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. I use mathematical and statistical methods to study how infectious diseases (e.g. influenza and Ebola) spread through populations and develop methods to predict them.

My colleagues and I published a paper, "Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong" in the journal PLOS Computational Biology. Hong Kong has a humid subtropical climate and is a known global epicenter for flu. Unlike the U.S., where flu is seasonal, the timing of flu outbreaks in Hong Kong and similar climates is highly irregular—making prediction particularly challenging. Using data from 1998 to 2013, we developed two forecast systems for Hong Kong. We were able to predict the timing and magnitude of flu epidemics and the 2009 pandemic with accuracy near that achieved for the U.S.http://ift.tt/1dC4h0j Our findings suggest that forecast of irregular infectious disease epidemics (e.g. the flu epidemics in Hong Kong) is possible.

I will be answering your questions at 1pm EST, AMA!

">PLOS Science Wednesday: Hi Reddit, my name is Wan Yang, and I developed a forecast system that predicted the timing and magnitude of flu epidemics in Hong Kong -- Ask Me Anything!